Fact Check: Harris Says Violent Crime Is Down, Trump Says It’s Up

Fact Check: Harris Says Violent Crime Is Down, Trump Says It’s Up

On the campaign trail, former President Donald Trump has claimed that violent crime has “skyrocketed” since 2020, while Vice President Kamala Harris asserts that violent crime has dropped to a “near 50-year low.” Both candidates reference different federal statistics, leading to confusion among the public regarding the current state of crime in the U.S.

Trump’s Claim: Crime Has “Skyrocketed”

Trump’s assertion is based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), conducted by the Justice Department. This survey estimates national crime rates by asking individuals if they have experienced a crime in the past six months. According to the NCVS, violent crime offenses—including rape, robbery, and aggravated assault—were approximately 37% higher in 2023 compared to 2020. Trump specifically stated on social media that violent crime is up nearly 40% from 2020.

While the NCVS provides valuable insights by capturing crimes that often go unreported, it does not include murder rates and has a margin of error. Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst, notes that the 2023 NCVS suggests violent crime likely fell slightly from 2022 levels and was statistically similar to 2019. He cautions against cherry-picking data from a single favorable year without considering broader trends.

Harris’s Claim: Crime at a “Near 50-Year Low”

Conversely, Harris’s claim is supported by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, which tracks crimes reported by police departments. This report indicates that the rate of violent crimes—defined as rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and homicide—was about 6% lower in 2023 than in 2020. Asher confirms that Harris’s assertion about violent crime being at a near 50-year low is accurate, as the 2023 rates are comparable to the lowest levels recorded since 1970.

Although the FBI’s data is based on voluntary participation from law enforcement agencies, over 16,000 agencies provided data in 2023, which enhances the credibility of the findings. Additionally, the Major Cities Chiefs Association has reported a 9.1% decrease in murders from 2020 to 2023 in 70 major U.S. cities.

Context of Violent Crime Under Biden-Harris and Trump

Experts highlight that violent crime rates have generally declined since the 1990s, with both NCVS and FBI data indicating that the current violent crime rate is substantially lower than in previous decades. Jillian Turanovic, an associate professor of sociology, emphasizes the importance of considering long-term trends and cautions against using 2020 as a baseline due to the unique societal disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

During Trump’s administration, violent crime rates fell annually during his first three years in office but experienced a spike in 2020. Researchers attribute this increase to various factors, including the economic strain of the pandemic, a rise in gun sales, and protests following the murder of George Floyd. However, there is ongoing debate about the extent to which these protests contributed to the rise in crime.

Conclusion

The conflicting claims from Trump and Harris underscore the complexities involved in interpreting crime statistics. While both utilize valid data sources, it is essential to consider the context of their claims and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic when evaluating the current crime landscape. Both the NCVS and FBI data indicate that violent crime rates are not soaring but reflect broader trends that suggest a long-term decline.

Keywords: violent crime statistics, Trump Harris crime claims, National Crime Victimization Survey, FBI Uniform Crime Report, crime trends analysis, COVID-19 impact on crime, long-term crime decline, U.S. crime rates.